Nicholas Politi
For the past twenty years, I’ve had a front-row seat to the Adirondack real estate market, sitting in my office at Merrill L. Thomas, Inc. on Main Street in Lake Placid. I’ve watched trends rise and fall, listened to buyers and sellers, and studied the market’s cycles. More importantly, I’ve heard firsthand what draws people to this region—what makes them dream of owning a piece of the Adirondacks. Through all the fluctuations, one thing has remained true: demand for Adirondack real estate has never disappeared, and I don’t expect it to anytime soon.
The Adirondack Real Estate Market Follows a Seasonal Rhythm
The market here is seasonal. It ebbs and flows like waves on a shoreline, rushing in with surges of interest and receding into quieter periods. It’s not a matter of boom or bust but rather the natural rhythm of a place that captures people’s hearts in an instant. I’ve seen it time and again—someone comes to town for Ironman Lake Placid, for their kid’s Can/Am hockey tournament, or maybe just a quiet weekend at The Lake Placid Lodge or The Point on Upper Saranac Lake. A few days in the mountains, and suddenly, they’re looking at listings, envisioning a future here.
What Will Drive ADK Property Values in 2025?
People often ask me, “Where are values headed next?” It’s a fair question, and one that doesn’t always have a simple answer. If there’s anything I’ve learned from my own experience—or from my father, who has spent fifty years in this business—it’s that real estate follows cycles. We’ve seen surges before. After 9/11, there was an influx of buyers looking for refuge in the Adirondacks, fueling a strong market from 2001 to 2007. But as economic challenges mounted, more homes trickled onto the market, leading to a shift.
The question now is whether we’re about to see another wave of listings. Will the COVID-era buyers who rushed to secure properties in the Adirondacks decide that the cost of maintaining a second home is too high? Will rising expenses and economic shifts lead to an increase in available inventory? I don’t think so.
The biggest difference between past market cycles and today is the sheer amount of wealth that has poured into the Adirondacks in recent years. Many buyers purchased at historically low interest rates, locking in financial security that makes selling less of a necessity. At the same time, inventory has never been tighter. In 2018, there were around seventy homes on the market in Lake Placid priced under $1 million. Today, that number is just seven.
We’re in the middle of an inventory crunch that I believe will persist for the next five years. More homes will inevitably hit the market this spring, and they’ll move through the summer as demand remains strong. By the fall, opportunities will emerge for those paying attention. And with interest rates likely to drop, competition will only intensify.
Why Inventory Constraints Will Keep Prices High
If I’ve learned anything in my two decades of watching this market, it’s that values in the Adirondacks have a way of surprising people. Just when you think they’ve peaked, they continue to climb. I believe that’s exactly what we’ll see in the years ahead. The sky’s the limit for this incredible place we call home.
